Data from Real Estate IQ reveals a striking increase in off-market lead filings for probates, divorces, and loan modifications in Texas and Florida during May 2025 and when compared to April 2025 and earlier periods. What could the market be telling? What trends can you take advantage of? Take a closer look at our intelligence report:

Data and Stories: A Closer Look at the Trends

The Off Market Leads data highlights significant shifts across multiple lead types:

• Probate Filings: As of the third week of May, probate filings have increased 50% on average relative to April. For May alone, a 115% increase from the first to the third week was seen signaling significant trends. 
• Divorce Filings: Texas divorce filings jumped 163% averaged monthly filings relative to April’s numbers. Within May, leads increased more than 2x since the first week.
• Loan Modifications: Loan modification filings in Texas also averages around 157 compared to below a hundred filings in the previous month. 

These numbers paint a picture of heightened distress and transition in the housing markets. Probate filings often signal the transfer of property due to death, divorce filings indicate potential asset splits, and loan modifications suggest homeowners struggling to manage mortgage payments. Together, these trends point to a confluence of economic, demographic, and legal factors driving real estate activity.

Economic, Social, and Legal Drivers

Several factors likely contributed to these spikes, based on recent housing market trends and demographic shifts in Texas and Florida:

1. Economic Pressures and Housing Affordability Challenges:
   • Texas and Florida have faced significant housing affordability challenges, exacerbated by rapid population growth and rising home prices. In Texas, median home prices rose by 40% between 2019 and 2023, while housing affordability hit its lowest level since 1985 due to record-high home prices and elevated mortgage rates. Florida’s median home price reached $412,200 by February 2025, a 60% increase from 2019, driven by a chronic lack of inventory and population influx.
   • High mortgage rates, averaging 6.81% for a 30-year fixed loan in April 2025, have strained homeowners. This financial pressure likely contributed to the surge in loan modifications, as homeowners sought to renegotiate terms to avoid default. The Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain higher rates to combat inflation (still above the 2% target at 2.8% in November 2024) has kept borrowing costs elevated, pushing more households into distress.
2. Demographic Shifts and the “Gray Divorce” Trend:
   • The rise in divorce filings, particularly among older couples, aligns with the growing trend of “gray divorces” (couples over 50). In Florida, this trend has doubled since the 1990s, driven by longer life expectancies, reduced stigma around divorce, and increased financial independence for women. Older adults reassessing long-term relationships may be contributing to the spike in divorce filings, which often lead to property sales or asset division.
   • Probate filings are also tied to demographic shifts. The aging baby boomer population (69 million strong) is increasingly crossing into their 70s, leading to a rise in estate settlements. This trend is particularly pronounced in states like Florida, known for its retiree population, and Texas, where population growth includes a significant elderly demographic.
3. Legal and Policy Changes:
   • Florida’s alimony laws underwent significant changes in 2025, moving away from long-term payments and capping rehabilitative alimony at five years. These changes may have encouraged more couples to finalize divorces, knowing that financial obligations would be limited, thus contributing to the spike in divorce filings.
   • The increase in probate filings may also be influenced by the growing practice of probate lending, where companies advance funds to heirs in exchange for a stake in the estate. While controversial, this practice has become more common in states with large elderly populations like Texas and Florida, potentially accelerating estate settlements and increasing probate activity.
4. Economic and Lifestyle Stressors:
   • Financial stress, a key driver of divorce, has been amplified by rising costs of living, including property taxes, home insurance, and maintenance, which rose 26% between 2020 and 2024 to over $18,000 annually for a typical single-family home. In Florida, soaring insurance costs due to hurricane risks have added further strain, with some residents opting to leave the state, potentially leading to more property transactions.
   • The shift to remote work, while stabilizing, continues to impact asset division in divorces. Home offices and flexible schedules complicate property settlements, as courts adapt to new norms, possibly contributing to the increased divorce filings.

Current Trends, Events and, Context

The broader economic context in May 2025 provides additional insight into these trends:

• Housing Market Dynamics: Both Texas and Florida are experiencing a shift toward a more balanced market, with increased inventory (e.g., Texas listings hit 123,000 in April 2025, 53% higher than normal, and Florida’s active listings rose 38.4% year-over-year). However, this oversupply, combined with slowing population growth (e.g., Texas net migration dropped 62% from 2022 to 2024), has led to downward pressure on prices, making it harder for homeowners to sell without taking a loss, thus driving loan modifications.
• Economic Growth and Inflation: The U.S. economy grew at 3.1% in Q3 2024, but the labor market is cooling, with modestly higher unemployment expected in 2025. Inflation, while down from 2022 highs, remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, keeping interest rates elevated and impacting affordability.
• Migration Patterns: Florida’s rapid population growth (2.76 million new residents between 2021 and 2023) has strained housing supply, but recent outmigration to more affordable states like Georgia and Texas due to high costs may be contributing to increased property transactions, including those tied to divorce and probate.

What do these mean for you?

Both Texas and Florida are shifting toward a buyer’s market, with increased inventory (Texas listings at 123,000 in April 2025, 53% above normal; Florida’s active listings up 38.4% year-over-year). This oversupply, combined with slowing population growth (e.g., Texas net migration down 62% from 2022 to 2024), is exerting downward pressure on prices. Investors can leverage this environment to negotiate better deals, especially on distressed properties tied to loan modifications, divorces, and probates.

High interest rates are deterring traditional buyers, reducing competition for investors who can pay cash or secure alternative financing. This allows for more aggressive offers on off-market properties without the risk of bidding wars.

Long-Term Investment Opportunities:

The sustained nature of these increases suggests a long-term trend driven by demographic shifts (aging baby boomers increasing probate filings) and economic pressures (persistent high interest rates and inflation at 2.8% in November 2024). Investors can build pipelines for these lead types, particularly in Florida, where probate and divorce trends are likely to continue due to its retiree-heavy demographic and recent alimony law changes.

Properties acquired through these leads can be flipped for profit in improving markets or held as rentals, especially in high-demand areas like Florida, where population growth (2.76 million new residents from 2021 to 2023) has historically driven rental demand, despite recent outmigration.

Risks and Challenges:

• Economic Uncertainty: A cooling labor market (modest unemployment increases expected in 2025) and persistent inflation could lead to further financial distress, increasing foreclosure rates if loan modifications fail. While this creates opportunities, it also poses risks of declining property values if economic conditions worsen.
• Rising Costs: In Florida, soaring insurance costs due to hurricane risks and annual homeownership expenses (up 26% from 2020 to 2024 to $18,000) may deter some investors or reduce profit margins on flips and rentals. Thorough due diligence on property maintenance and insurance costs is essential.
• Market Saturation: The high volume of distressed properties may lead to saturation in certain markets, particularly in Texas, where inventory is already elevated. Investors should focus on niche areas or properties with unique value propositions to avoid oversaturated segments.

The surge in off-market lead filings in May 2025 positions investors to capitalize on a growing pool of distressed and motivated seller properties in Texas and Florida. By focusing on high-growth lead types like Florida’s loan modifications and Texas’s divorce filings, leveraging the buyer’s market, and preparing for long-term demographic trends, investors can secure profitable deals while navigating economic uncertainties.

What’s next?

The May 2025 surge in probate, divorce, and loan modification filings in Texas and Florida reflects a complex interplay of economic pressures, demographic shifts, and legal changes. High interest rates, housing affordability challenges, and an aging population are driving these trends, creating a fertile ground for off-market leads. To learn more how to get first dibs to these leads and analysis, contact us for a consultation.